Nader Habibi and Bahman Baktiari
For the first time in more than 30 years, the
United States and Iran have engaged in high-level diplomatic talks in the hope
of resolving the nuclear impasse. The unprecedented telephone conversation between President
Obama and the Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is a positive development after
three decades of acriminous dialogue. The stakes for both governments cannot be
underestimated. Both presidents face daunting domestic challenges, Obama has to convince Congress and the
Israeli government that Rouhani represents the best chance for a diplomatic
resolution of the nuclear impasse.
Rouhani has to navigate the minefield of the Iranian political system to
make sure hardliners do not derail his initiatives.
Yet, the stakes are much higher for the Iranian
people. They want these
negotiations to succeed, and as much as statements like “recognizing the right
of the Iranian people to access peaceful nuclear energy ”is reassuring to
political leaders in Iran, what Iranian people need to see is tangible relief from some of the sanctions, reparation of Iran’s international image,
and better opportunities for young Iranians who struggle to make a living
for themselves and their families.
By their large participation in the June
Presidential elections the Iranian voters demonstrated that they are well aware
of the high stakes involved in the current nuclear impasse. The financial and oil
sanctions have taken a heavy toll on Iranian economy and its young
population. GDP growth per capita declined from an average 3.5
percent per year between 1997 and 2004 to 1.5 percent between 2005 and 2010. As
a result, Iran is currently experiencing record high unemployment along with
very high inflation rates. While the over all unemployment has recently
approached 14% for the entire economy the youth unemployment is well above 20%.
The economy has sunk into a recession in 2012 with a negative five percent
economic growth. Iran’s standing
on the 2012 Human Development Index published by the United Nations Development
Program has declined in 2012 to 76 out of 186 nations. Between 2010 and 2011,
it had already declined by six positions on the UNDP index.
Under such economic conditions, young Iranians
do anything in order to move to another country in search of job and a more
secure living. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF),
in a ranking of 91 countries with the largest brain drain, Iran is at the
top of the list with between 150,000-180,000 of its university graduates
leaving the country every year. For the first time in Iranian
history, we hear about “Iranian boat people”
risking their lives on refugee boats headed to Australia. Instead,
they have ended up on an islamd prison created by the Australian government to
block refugee boats from entering the country. According to
available data, more than 5 million Iranians live abroad today, a
staggering number since a majority of them have emigrated since 1979
revolution.
Some critics believe that even a partial lifting of sanctions
before the Iranian government agrees to major concessions will send a
wrong signal to the Iranian government. The U.S. congress is moving in the
direction of imposing new sanctions before the negotiations can get off the
ground. However, this will send the wrong signal to the
Iranian people. They will perceive
such a move as an attempt by the U.S. congress to undermine the negotiations. If it was not for the vote of the
Iranian people that resulted in the election of Rouhani, there would not
have been a negotiating partner that speaks of moderation, and a determination
to resolve the nuclear impasse. Furthermore,
maintaining the sanctions will
enhance the position of the hardliners and the Supreme Leader who are looking
to transform any small set-back into a major failure.
The
United States should view the Iranian people as an important stakeholder in the
current negotiations. As
President Obama stated in his UN speech,
“Iran’s genuine commitment to go down a different path will be good for
the region and the world, and will help the Iranian people meet their
extraordinary potential in commerce andculture, in science and education.” By lifting some of the sanctions
and relieving the economic pressure on Iranian people at the start of the
nuclear negotiations, the
United States will not only
demonstrate its good will and
credibility to Iranians, and it
would also increase their stake in success of the negotiations. This will put more pressure on Iranian government to
deliver on its promises and show more flexibility. Otherwise,
the Iranian people will
blame their own government if the negotiations fail.
Nader Habibi is the Henry J. Leir Professor of the Economics
of the Middle East, at Brandeis University's Crown Center for
Middle East Studies.
Bahman Baktiari is the Executive Director of the
International Foundation for Civil Society in Salt Lake City, Utah.
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