Since the start of this year, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, has never missed an opportunity to hint that his country might attack Iran’s nuclear programme at any moment. In speech after speech, he has repeatedly asserted that Iran’s nuclear programme is crossing a threshold – a zone of immunity – when its striving for the bomb becomes irreversible. He has warned that no state has the moral right to stop Israel taking military action. For months, his government has privately warned western leaders that it could launch a strike ahead of November’s US presidential election – putting pressure on a reluctant Barack Obama to provide military support to finish the job.This week, Mr Netanyahu finally put an end to this tactic. In a speech to the UN General Assembly, he unveiled a new timetable for possible military action. He argued that Iran will cross a “red line” next summer when it has amassed enough highly enriched uranium for one nuclear bomb. At that point, he said, a military strike would become necessary.
His threat of military action continues. But the significance of his speech is that an attack this year – the “October surprise” – is off the agenda.Israel’s concerns about a nuclear-armed Iran are legitimate, but an Israeli attack was never warranted while there is still time for diplomacy and sanctions to make Iran back down. In this respect, Mr Netanyahu’s threat of an air strike in 2012 was premature. The Israeli military establishment openly opposed the idea, saying Israel could not attack Iran alone. The Obama administration resisted his efforts to force America’s hand.
The Iranians refused to take his blustering seriously. Finally, Israel’s prime minister blinked. The question now is whether the Obama administration should sign up to his new “red line.” It should not. Even if Iran amasses enough highly enriched uranium for one bomb next summer, the regime will need another three months to convert it to weapons grade material.
This would be visible to international inspectors. It would also give the US time to plan a military response. Besides, if the US were to adopt the new red line, it would most likely hinder chances of a diplomatic settlement with Iran.Reaching a diplomatic settlement should be the goal of western policy at this stage. In 2013, the US must reach out to Iran and seek a deal to halt its enrichment activities. The Iranian regime should also wake up to reality. Its claim to be enriching uranium for peaceful purposes is not credible. It should strike a bargain.
In the meantime, Israelis might pause for thought. Israel has every right to fear an Iranian bomb. But Mr Netanyahu’s posturing this year has done his people no favours at all.
Bahman Baktiari
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